Arnedo 4–1 Autol: Result & Stats

Arnedo

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Autol

Xavier Planas 68'

Mario García 66'

Iván Pascual 49'

Nacho Navajas 47' (pen)

Andoni Rojo 35'

11/30/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 13Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Arnedo75%

×Draw16%

Autol9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArnedoExpected goals in this matchAutol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.66

Arnedo

2.33

Autol

0.66

Arnedo creates 253% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 34 away

1.92

creates per match

0.50

0.81

allows per match

2.74

creates per match

Arnedo

1.92

Autol

0.50

allows per match

Arnedo

0.81

Autol

2.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par

Autol+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Autol →

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw

91%

Arnedo or Autol

84%

Draw or Autol

25%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+

51%

Autol wins by 2+

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals

90%

Arnedo 2+ goals

67%

Arnedo 3+ goals

41%

Autol 1+ goals

48%

Autol 2+ goals

14%

Autol 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)

89%

Autol (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Autol away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Autol defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.33

Autol attack 0.50 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Arnedo scores more

75%

level

16%

Autol scores more

Arnedo at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Angel Chacon← Sergio Moriones

35'

Andoni Rojo

46'

Nacho Navajas← Manuel Ballestero

47'

Nacho NavajasPenalty

49'

Iván Pascual

57'

Daniel Miranda← Khalid Dahmani

62'

Noel Lizarbe← Alfonso Corbacho

66'

Mario García

68'

Xavier Planas

69'

Asier Villoslada← Javier Martinez

69'

Mikel Saenz← Óscar Castillo

73'

David Gonzalez← Iván Pascual

73'

N. Kwaku← Mario García

73'

Asier Cuevas← Nacho Gil

Arnedo

Autol

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Pascual

▼

Moriones

▼

Ballester

⚽

▼

García

⚽

Planas

Manager: Eduardo Hache

12'▲Angel Chacon←▼Sergio Moriones

46'▲Nacho Navajas←▼Manuel Ballestero

62'▲Noel Lizarbe←▼Alfonso Corbacho

73'▲David Gonzalez←▼Iván Pascual

73'▲N. Kwaku←▼Mario García

Arnedo substitutes

ChaconNavajasLizarbeGonzalezKwaku

Manager: Mario Izquierdo

57'▲Daniel Miranda←▼Khalid Dahmani

69'▲Asier Villoslada←▼Javier Martinez

69'▲Mikel Saenz←▼Óscar Castillo

73'▲Asier Cuevas←▼Nacho Gil

Autol substitutes

MirandaVillosladaSaenzCuevas

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 4–1 Autol

Arnedo beat Autol 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on November 30, 2024.

Goals: Andoni Rojo (35'), Nacho Navajas (47' pen), Iván Pascual (49'), Mario García (66'), Xavier Planas (68').

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.

Arnedo vs Autol — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Arnedo 4–1 Autol