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Arnedo vs Alfaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Arnedo
Arnedo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alfaro
Alfaro
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Estadio Sendero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arnedo42%
×Draw25%
Alfaro33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arnedo
1.53
Alfaro
1.31

Arnedo creates 17% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 59 away

creates per match

Arnedo
1.92
Alfaro
1.80

allows per match

Arnedo
0.81
Alfaro
1.14

finishing

Arnedo+0.00on par
Alfaro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnedo ↓

Alfaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Arnedo or draw
67%
Arnedo or Alfaro
75%
Draw or Alfaro
58%

Winning margin

Arnedo wins by 2+
21%
Alfaro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arnedo 1+ goals
78%
Arnedo 2+ goals
45%
Arnedo 3+ goals
20%
Alfaro 1+ goals
73%
Alfaro 2+ goals
38%
Alfaro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Arnedo (draw refunded)
57%
Alfaro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnedo at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.81 · 95 matches

Alfaro away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnedo attack 1.92 + Alfaro defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.53

Alfaro attack 1.80 + Arnedo defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arnedo scores more
42%
level
25%
Alfaro scores more
33%

Arnedo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arnedo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arnedo 0 – 1 Alfaro

Alfaro beat Arnedo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Sendero in Arnedo.