Arnavutköy Belediyespor 0–0 Güzide Gebzespor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Güzide Gebzespor

9/28/2024

League #205 · Kirmizi - 5Bolluca Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor36%

×Draw34%

Güzide Gebzespor31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arnavutköy BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchGüzide Gebzespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.81

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

0.90

Güzide Gebzespor

0.81

Arnavutköy Belediyespor creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 28 away

0.50

creates per match

1.11

0.50

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

0.50

Güzide Gebzespor

1.11

allows per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

0.50

Güzide Gebzespor

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnavutköy Belediyespor ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Arnavutköy Belediyespor or draw

69%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor or Güzide Gebzespor

66%

Draw or Güzide Gebzespor

64%

Winning margin

Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+

13%

Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals

59%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals

23%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals

6%

Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals

56%

Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals

19%

Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)

54%

Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 0.50 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.11 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more

36%

level

34%

Güzide Gebzespor scores more

31%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arnavutköy Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Yıldırım← M. Çayir

46'

E. Çeltik← A. Pak

63'

B. Altıntaş← O. Takır

70'

H. Çakmak← Ö. Ermeç

77'

K. Kılıç← S. Gazanfer

77'

T. Bulut← A. Yakut

82'

T. Güner← D. Özdemir

82'

B. Yıldız← İ. Nalbant

90+1'

Ü. Ekşi← Y. Karakaya

Arnavutköy

Güzide

41

Korkmaz

12

Yılmazer

48

Aksu

88

▼

23

4

77

89

11

▼

Özdemir

6

▼

Karakaya

9

▼

1

5

4

30

21

▼

Gazanfer

77

Çevik

8

Kocabal

10

▼

Yakut

7

▼

Çayir

55

▼

Pak

93

▼

Ermeç

Manager: İ. Püren

46'▲A. Yıldırım←▼M. Çayir

46'▲E. Çeltik←▼A. Pak

70'▲H. Çakmak←▼Ö. Ermeç

77'▲K. Kılıç←▼S. Gazanfer

77'▲T. Bulut←▼A. Yakut

Arnavutköy Belediyespor substitutes

11Yıldırım59Çeltik66Çakmak19Kılıç20Bulut13Köklü6Yaman61Turan48Tarım23Arıkan

Manager: N. Çolak

63'▲B. Altıntaş←▼O. Takır

82'▲T. Güner←▼D. Özdemir

82'▲B. Yıldız←▼İ. Nalbant

90+1'▲Ü. Ekşi←▼Y. Karakaya

Güzide Gebzespor substitutes

21Altıntaş8Güner17Yıldız20Ekşi13Güler5Gülay19Özbayraklı47Harman18İrze7Yaman