Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2–0 Çengelköyspor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Çengelköyspor

10/14/2020

Türkiye Kupası · 1st RoundSilivri Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor65%

×Draw21%

Çengelköyspor15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arnavutköy BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchÇengelköyspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.83

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

2.00

Çengelköyspor

0.83

Arnavutköy Belediyespor creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.33

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

2.00

Çengelköyspor

0.33

allows per match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

1.33

Çengelköyspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Çengelköyspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arnavutköy Belediyespor ↓

Çengelköyspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arnavutköy Belediyespor or draw

85%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor or Çengelköyspor

79%

Draw or Çengelköyspor

35%

Winning margin

Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+

40%

Çengelköyspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals

86%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals

59%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals

32%

Çengelköyspor 1+ goals

56%

Çengelköyspor 2+ goals

20%

Çengelköyspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)

81%

Çengelköyspor (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Çengelköyspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 2.00 + Çengelköyspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Çengelköyspor attack 0.33 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more

65%

level

21%

Çengelköyspor scores more

15%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Arnavutköy Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff