Arna-Bjørnar W 4–2 Stabæk W: Result & Stats

Arna-Bjørnar W

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Stabæk W

L. Sælen 83'

M. Andresen 64'

M. Ivanović 32'

T. Svendheim 26'

S. Vallotto 52'

M. Abrahamsen 23'

5/27/2023

Toppserien · Round 11Arna Idrettspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Arna-Bjørnar W31%

×Draw24%

Stabæk W45%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arna-Bjørnar WExpected goals in this matchStabæk W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.69

Arna-Bjørnar W

1.36

Stabæk W

1.69

Stabæk W creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

1.13

creates per match

1.16

2.22

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Arna-Bjørnar W

1.13

Stabæk W

1.16

allows per match

Arna-Bjørnar W

2.22

Stabæk W

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arna-Bjørnar W+0.00on par

Stabæk W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arna-Bjørnar W ↓

Stabæk W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Arna-Bjørnar W or draw

55%

Arna-Bjørnar W or Stabæk W

76%

Draw or Stabæk W

69%

Winning margin

Arna-Bjørnar W wins by 2+

14%

Stabæk W wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Arna-Bjørnar W 1+ goals

74%

Arna-Bjørnar W 2+ goals

39%

Arna-Bjørnar W 3+ goals

16%

Stabæk W 1+ goals

82%

Stabæk W 2+ goals

50%

Stabæk W 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Arna-Bjørnar W (draw refunded)

41%

Stabæk W (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arna-Bjørnar W at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.22 · 45 matches

Stabæk W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arna-Bjørnar W attack 1.13 + Stabæk W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stabæk W attack 1.16 + Arna-Bjørnar W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arna-Bjørnar W scores more

31%

level

24%

Stabæk W scores more

45%

Stabæk W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stabæk W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

26'

32'

52'

64'

67'

A. Nigardsøy← M. Andresen

67'

A. Rasmussen← M. Thoresen

67'

T. Loennecken← A. Anderdal

83'

S. Strømnes← Z. Jönsson

83'

L. Sælen

90'

M. Johannsdottir← S. Bjørnsen

Arna-Bjørnar

Stabæk

22

2

6

16

9

⚽

Abrahamse

8

Kielland

10

⚽

Vallotto

19

▼

Anderdal

7

Bjånesøy

95

▼

Thoresen

11

▼

24

23

6

13

⚽

▼

Andresen

4

Ose

14

⚽

Svendheim

10

⚽

Ivanović

8

Nøss

9

Aas

22

▼

Bjørnsen

19

⚽

Sælen

Manager: T. Mork

67'▲A. Nigardsøy←▼M. Andresen

90'▲M. Johannsdottir←▼S. Bjørnsen

Arna-Bjørnar W substitutes

18Nigardsøy3Johannsdottir1Norstrøm15Stenersen37Vedeler43Dalsgård

Manager: P. Belsvik

67'▲A. Rasmussen←▼M. Thoresen

67'▲T. Loennecken←▼A. Anderdal

83'▲S. Strømnes←▼Z. Jönsson

Stabæk W substitutes

3Rasmussen4Loennecken20Strømnes5Bjørneboe15Høgevold21Dunsby23Leonards

Toppserien: Arna-Bjørnar W 4–2 Stabæk W

Arna-Bjørnar W beat Stabæk W 4-2 in Toppserien on May 27, 2023.

Goals: M. Abrahamsen (23'), T. Svendheim (26'), M. Ivanović (32'), S. Vallotto (52'), M. Andresen (64'), L. Sælen (83').

The match was played at Arna Idrettspark in Indre Arna.

Arna-Bjørnar W vs Stabæk W — Toppserien 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Toppserien: Arna-Bjørnar W 4–2 Stabæk W