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Army United vs Ubon UMT — Thai League 2 2018

Army United
Army United
FT
5 – 0
Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
5/11/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Army United55%
×Draw23%
Ubon UMT22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Army United
1.83
Ubon UMT
1.07

Army United creates 71% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Army United
1.90
Ubon UMT
0.82

allows per match

Army United
1.32
Ubon UMT
1.76

finishing

Army United+0.00on par
Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

Ubon UMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Army United or draw
78%
Army United or Ubon UMT
77%
Draw or Ubon UMT
45%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+
31%
Ubon UMT wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals
84%
Army United 2+ goals
54%
Army United 3+ goals
28%
Ubon UMT 1+ goals
66%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
29%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)
71%
Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.90 + Ubon UMT defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

Ubon UMT attack 0.82 + Army United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Army United scores more
55%
level
23%
Ubon UMT scores more
22%

Army United at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Army United vs Ubon UMT

Army United beat Ubon UMT 5-0 in Thai League 2 on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok).