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Army United vs Trat FC — Thai League 2 2018

Army United
Army United
FT
2 – 2
Trat FC
Trat FC
4/11/2018Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Army United48%
×Draw24%
Trat FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Army United
1.73
Trat FC
1.26

Army United creates 37% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 84 away

creates per match

Army United
1.90
Trat FC
1.20

allows per match

Army United
1.32
Trat FC
1.57

finishing

Army United+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Army United or draw
72%
Army United or Trat FC
76%
Draw or Trat FC
52%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+
26%
Trat FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals
82%
Army United 2+ goals
52%
Army United 3+ goals
25%
Trat FC 1+ goals
72%
Trat FC 2+ goals
36%
Trat FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)
63%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Trat FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.90 + Trat FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Trat FC attack 1.20 + Army United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Army United scores more
48%
level
24%
Trat FC scores more
28%

Army United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Army United vs Trat FC

Army United and Trat FC drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on April 11, 2018.

The match was played at Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok).