Army United 1–2 PTT Rayong: Result & Stats

Army United

FT

1 – 2

PTT Rayong

9/8/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 26Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Army United40%

×Draw26%

PTT Rayong35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Army UnitedExpected goals in this matchPTT Rayong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

Army United

1.42

PTT Rayong

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 14 away

1.90

creates per match

1.29

1.32

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Army United

1.90

PTT Rayong

1.29

allows per match

Army United

1.32

PTT Rayong

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Army United+0.00on par

PTT Rayong+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

PTT Rayong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Army United or draw

65%

Army United or PTT Rayong

74%

Draw or PTT Rayong

60%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+

19%

PTT Rayong wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals

76%

Army United 2+ goals

41%

Army United 3+ goals

17%

PTT Rayong 1+ goals

73%

PTT Rayong 2+ goals

38%

PTT Rayong 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)

53%

PTT Rayong (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

PTT Rayong away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.90 + PTT Rayong defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.42

PTT Rayong attack 1.29 + Army United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Army United scores more

40%

level

26%

PTT Rayong scores more

35%

Army United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff