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Army United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya — Thai League 2 2018

Army United
Army United
FT
1 – 0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya
8/3/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 24Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Army United44%
×Draw24%
Nong Bua Pitchaya32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Army United
1.60
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.33

Army United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

creates per match

Army United
1.90
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.34

allows per match

Army United
1.32
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1.30

finishing

Army United+0.00on par
Nong Bua Pitchaya+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

Nong Bua Pitchaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Army United or draw
68%
Army United or Nong Bua Pitchaya
76%
Draw or Nong Bua Pitchaya
56%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+
22%
Nong Bua Pitchaya wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals
80%
Army United 2+ goals
47%
Army United 3+ goals
22%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1+ goals
74%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 2+ goals
38%
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)
58%
Nong Bua Pitchaya (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Nong Bua Pitchaya away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.90 + Nong Bua Pitchaya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.60

Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.34 + Army United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Army United scores more
44%
level
24%
Nong Bua Pitchaya scores more
32%

Army United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Army United vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Army United beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 in Thai League 2 on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok).