Army United 1–1 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Army United

FT

1 – 1

Ayutthaya FC

7/20/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 21Thai Army Sports Stadium (Bangkok)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Army United46%

×Draw24%

Ayutthaya FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Army UnitedExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.29

Army United

1.64

Ayutthaya FC

1.29

Army United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 101 away

1.90

creates per match

1.25

1.32

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Army United

1.90

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Army United

1.32

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Army United+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Army United ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Army United or draw

70%

Army United or Ayutthaya FC

76%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

54%

Winning margin

Army United wins by 2+

24%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Army United 1+ goals

81%

Army United 2+ goals

49%

Army United 3+ goals

23%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

72%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

37%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Army United (draw refunded)

60%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Army United at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Army United attack 1.90 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.64

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Army United defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Army United scores more

46%

level

24%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

30%

Army United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Army United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff