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Arminia Ludwigshafen vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
5/27/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 12Südwestplatz an der Mundenheimer Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen56%
×Draw19%
Mülheim-Kärlich25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.42
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.58

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.00
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.17

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.00
Mülheim-Kärlich
2.83

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw
75%
Arminia Ludwigshafen or Mülheim-Kärlich
81%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
44%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
35%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
91%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
69%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
43%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
79%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
47%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
69%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 2.00 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.17 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
56%
level
19%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
25%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Arminia Ludwigshafen 5–2 Mülheim-Kärlich

Arminia Ludwigshafen beat Mülheim-Kärlich 5-2 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Südwestplatz an der Mundenheimer Straße in Ludwigshafen am Rhein.