Arminia Ludwigshafen 1–3 Dudenhofen: Result & Stats

Arminia Ludwigshafen

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Dudenhofen

11/17/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Südweststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen41%

×Draw22%

Dudenhofen37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia LudwigshafenExpected goals in this matchDudenhofen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.75

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.83

Dudenhofen

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 61 away

1.83

creates per match

1.70

1.79

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.83

Dudenhofen

1.70

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.79

Dudenhofen

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Dudenhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Dudenhofen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw

63%

Arminia Ludwigshafen or Dudenhofen

78%

Draw or Dudenhofen

59%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

21%

Dudenhofen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

84%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

54%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

28%

Dudenhofen 1+ goals

83%

Dudenhofen 2+ goals

52%

Dudenhofen 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

52%

Dudenhofen (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

Dudenhofen away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.84 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.83 + Dudenhofen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dudenhofen attack 1.70 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

41%

level

22%

Dudenhofen scores more

37%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff