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Arminia Ludwigshafen vs Auersmacher — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Auersmacher
Auersmacher
4/19/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 28Haag-Park-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen44%
×Draw22%
Auersmacher34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.93
Auersmacher
1.67

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.83
Auersmacher
1.54

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.79
Auersmacher
2.03

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par
Auersmacher+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Auersmacher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw
66%
Arminia Ludwigshafen or Auersmacher
78%
Draw or Auersmacher
56%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
24%
Auersmacher wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
85%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
57%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
30%
Auersmacher 1+ goals
81%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
50%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
57%
Auersmacher (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

Auersmacher away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.03 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.83 + Auersmacher defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.93

Auersmacher attack 1.54 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
44%
level
22%
Auersmacher scores more
34%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Arminia Ludwigshafen 2–2 Auersmacher

Arminia Ludwigshafen and Auersmacher drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Haag-Park-Arena in Ludwigshafen am Rhein.