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Arminia Bielefeld vs SV Rodinghausen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
SV Rodinghausen
SV Rodinghausen
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Trainingsgelände DSC Arminia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld41%
×Draw22%
SV Rodinghausen38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld
1.89
SV Rodinghausen
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld
2.40
SV Rodinghausen
2.63

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld
1.00
SV Rodinghausen
1.38

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par
SV Rodinghausen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

SV Rodinghausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw
62%
Arminia Bielefeld or SV Rodinghausen
78%
Draw or SV Rodinghausen
59%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
22%
SV Rodinghausen wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
85%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
56%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
29%
SV Rodinghausen 1+ goals
84%
SV Rodinghausen 2+ goals
54%
SV Rodinghausen 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
52%
SV Rodinghausen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

SV Rodinghausen away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.40 + SV Rodinghausen defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.89

SV Rodinghausen attack 2.63 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more
41%
level
22%
SV Rodinghausen scores more
38%

Arminia Bielefeld at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Arminia Bielefeld 0–3 SV Rodinghausen

SV Rodinghausen beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Trainingsgelände DSC Arminia in Bielefeld.