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Arminia Bielefeld vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
11/30/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 14SchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld51%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld
1.79
Preußen Münster
1.22

Arminia Bielefeld creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld
1.79
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld
1.29
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw
74%
Arminia Bielefeld or Preußen Münster
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster
49%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
28%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
83%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
53%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
26%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
70%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
34%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
66%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.79 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more
51%
level
23%
Preußen Münster scores more
26%

Arminia Bielefeld at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld vs Preußen Münster

Preußen Münster beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on November 30, 2025.

The match was played at SchücoArena in Bielefeld.