Arminia Bielefeld 7–1 Havelse: Result & Stats

Arminia Bielefeld

FT

7 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Havelse

D. Richter 90', 89'

J. Kania 65' (pen)

N. Sarenren Bazee 51', 32'

J. Felix 21'

B. Boakye 6'

V. Cherny 81'

7/10/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld50%

×Draw19%

Havelse31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia BielefeldExpected goals in this matchHavelse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

2.04

Arminia Bielefeld

2.57

Havelse

2.04

Arminia Bielefeld creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

2.83

creates per match

3.00

1.08

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld

2.83

Havelse

3.00

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld

1.08

Havelse

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.00on par

Havelse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

Havelse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw

69%

Arminia Bielefeld or Havelse

81%

Draw or Havelse

50%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+

31%

Havelse wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals

92%

Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals

72%

Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals

47%

Havelse 1+ goals

87%

Havelse 2+ goals

60%

Havelse 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)

61%

Havelse (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Havelse away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.83 + Havelse defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.57

Havelse attack 3.00 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more

50%

level

19%

Havelse scores more

31%

Arminia Bielefeld at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

21'

32'

51'

65'

J. KaniaPenalty

81'

V. Cherny

89'

D. Richter

90'

D. Richter

Arminia

Havelse

1

5

9

10

11

22

23

24

28

43

39

1

11

37

⚽2

6

10

29

21

24

3

⚽

Felix

23

Schneider

27

⚽

Boakye

Manager: Michel Kniat

Arminia Bielefeld substitutes

7Kania43Richter

Manager: Samir Ferchichi

Havelse substitutes

21Cherny

Friendlies Clubs: Arminia Bielefeld 7–1 Havelse

Arminia Bielefeld beat Havelse 7-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2025.

Goals: B. Boakye (6'), J. Felix (21'), N. Sarenren Bazee (32', 51'), J. Kania (65' pen), V. Cherny (81'), D. Richter (89', 90').

Arminia Bielefeld vs Havelse — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Arminia Bielefeld 7–1 Havelse