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Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
CANC
13:00
Wuppertaler SV U19
Wuppertaler SV U19
12/5/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 9Böllhoff Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1957%
×Draw21%
Wuppertaler SV U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.13
Wuppertaler SV U19
1.25

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.60
Wuppertaler SV U19
0.79

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.72
Wuppertaler SV U19
2.67

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par
Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw
78%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19
79%
Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19
43%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
35%
Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
88%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
63%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
35%
Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals
71%
Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals
36%
Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.60 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.79 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
57%
level
21%
Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more
22%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arminia Bielefeld U19 face Wuppertaler SV U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Arminia Bielefeld U19 hosting Wuppertaler SV U19. Match starts December 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 host Wuppertaler SV U19 at Böllhoff Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.