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Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Schalke 04 U19
Schalke 04 U19
10/26/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1930%
×Draw23%
Schalke 04 U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.42
Schalke 04 U19
1.82

Schalke 04 U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 67 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.60
Schalke 04 U19
1.93

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.72
Schalke 04 U19
1.24

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par
Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw
53%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Schalke 04 U19
77%
Draw or Schalke 04 U19
70%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
14%
Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
76%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
41%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
17%
Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals
84%
Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals
54%
Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.60 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Schalke 04 U19 attack 1.93 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
30%
level
23%
Schalke 04 U19 scores more
47%

Schalke 04 U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 2–0 Schalke 04 U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Schalke 04 U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 26, 2025.