Arminia Bielefeld U19 1–1 Borussia M'bach U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Borussia M'bach U19

C. Dogan 90+1'

R. Naderi 86'

10/30/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 7Böllhoff Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1930%

×Draw22%

Borussia M'bach U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia Bielefeld U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

2.00

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.55

Borussia M'bach U19

2.00

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 73 away

1.66

creates per match

2.32

1.69

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.66

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19

1.69

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw

52%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

78%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

70%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+

14%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals

79%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals

46%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals

20%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

86%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

59%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.69 · 59 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.66 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

48%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

R. Naderi← Y. Borges Sanches

61'

S. Turping← C. Arnold

65'

E. Ibrahimi← N. Korniyenko

65'

J. Schade← T. Wozny

78'

D. Nweke← T. Reitz

85'

J. Mihajlovic← A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab

86'

R. Naderi

89'

F. Kocaarslan← J. Frommann

90+3'

L. Arndt← M. Moustafa

90+1'

C. Dogan

Arminia

Borussia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Fulland

65'▲E. Ibrahimi←▼N. Korniyenko

65'▲J. Schade←▼T. Wozny

85'▲J. Mihajlovic←▼A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab

89'▲F. Kocaarslan←▼J. Frommann

Arminia Bielefeld U19 substitutes

IbrahimiSchadeMihajlovicKocaarslanMesicSikoraHahne

Manager: S. Eickel

61'▲R. Naderi←▼Y. Borges Sanches

61'▲S. Turping←▼C. Arnold

78'▲D. Nweke←▼T. Reitz

90+3'▲L. Arndt←▼M. Moustafa

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

NaderiTurpingNwekeArndtWirthNackZenku

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 1–1 Borussia M'bach U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 and Borussia M'bach U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 30, 2021.

Goals: R. Naderi (86'), C. Dogan (90+1').

The match was played at Böllhoff Stadion in Bielefeld.

Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 1–1 Borussia M'bach U19