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Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Blumenthaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Blumenthaler SV U19
Blumenthaler SV U19
5/9/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld U1952%
×Draw20%
Blumenthaler SV U1928%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.23
Blumenthaler SV U19
1.61

Arminia Bielefeld U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.66
Blumenthaler SV U19
1.53

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.69
Blumenthaler SV U19
2.79

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par
Blumenthaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld U19 ↓

Blumenthaler SV U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld U19 or draw
72%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 or Blumenthaler SV U19
80%
Draw or Blumenthaler SV U19
48%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
31%
Blumenthaler SV U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
89%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
65%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
38%
Blumenthaler SV U19 1+ goals
80%
Blumenthaler SV U19 2+ goals
48%
Blumenthaler SV U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Blumenthaler SV U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.69 · 59 matches

Blumenthaler SV U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.66 + Blumenthaler SV U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.23

Blumenthaler SV U19 attack 1.53 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
52%
level
20%
Blumenthaler SV U19 scores more
28%

Arminia Bielefeld U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Arminia
Blumenthaler
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe
D. Spitzer
Manager: D. Spitzer

U19 Bundesliga: Arminia Bielefeld U19 3–0 Blumenthaler SV U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 beat Blumenthaler SV U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 9, 2026.