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Armenia vs Scotland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Armenia
Armenia
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Scotland
Scotland
V. Bichakhchyan 6'
C. Adams 53'
J. McGinn 50'
S. Armstrong 45+1', 14'
6/14/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 4Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Armenia32%
×Draw26%
Scotland42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armenia
1.23
Scotland
1.44

Scotland creates 17% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Armenia
1.25
Scotland
1.22

allows per match

Armenia
1.67
Scotland
1.22

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par
Scotland+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Scotland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Armenia or draw
58%
Armenia or Scotland
74%
Draw or Scotland
68%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+
14%
Scotland wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals
71%
Armenia 2+ goals
35%
Armenia 3+ goals
13%
Scotland 1+ goals
76%
Scotland 2+ goals
42%
Scotland 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)
43%
Scotland (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Scotland away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + Scotland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Scotland attack 1.22 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Armenia scores more
32%
level
26%
Scotland scores more
42%

Scotland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Scotland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
S. ArmstrongScotlandScotland · F
9.3

Match Events

6'
V. Bichakhchyan↳ T. Barseghyan
14'
S. Armstrong↳ C. Adams
20'
Che Adams
32'
Varazdat Haroyan
44'
Arman Hovhannisyan
44'
Arman Hovhannisyan
44'
Arman Hovhannisyan
45+1'
S. Armstrong↳ J. McGinn
46'
S. Mkrtchyan← A. Grigoryan
47'
Eduard Spertsyan
48'
Hovhannes Hambardzumyan
50'
J. McGinn↳ N. Patterson
53'
C. Adams↳ S. Armstrong
59'
K. Hovhannisyan← K. Bayramyan
59'
S. Udo← V. Bichakhchyan
59'
W. Angulo← E. Spertsyan
63'
L. Ferguson← B. Gilmour
64'
D. Turnbull← J. McGinn
64'
A. Ralston← N. Patterson
74'
J. Brown← C. Adams
84'
A. Serobyan← T. Barseghyan
86'
A. Campbell← G. Hanley
90+1'
Kamo Hovhannisyan
90+1'
Scott McTominay

Possession

30%Armenia

Shots

9Armenia

Pass accuracy

47%Armenia

Statistics

ArmeniaScotland
Overview
30%Possession70%
9Total Shots14
4Corners7
11Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots14
4On Target7
2Off Target3
3Blocked4
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box6
Passing
30%Possession70%
290Total Passes693
234Accurate Passes637
81%Pass Accuracy92%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls11
5Yellow Cards2
2Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Armenia vs Scotland

Scotland beat Armenia 4-1 in UEFA Nations League on June 14, 2022.

Goals: V. Bichakhchyan (6'), S. Armstrong (14', 45+1'), J. McGinn (50'), C. Adams (53').

Scotland controlled possession (70%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht in Yerevan.