Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Armenia vs Montenegro — UEFA Nations League 2018

Armenia
Armenia
Preview
16:00
Montenegro
Montenegro
9/28/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 2
Big match
41%
Montenegro
model favours
31%28%41%

Top-of-the-table clash — Armenia 2 vs Montenegro 4

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Armenia31%
×Draw28%
Montenegro41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armenia
1.07
Montenegro
1.28

Montenegro creates 20% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Armenia
1.25
Montenegro
0.89

allows per match

Armenia
1.67
Montenegro
0.89

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par
Montenegro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Montenegro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Armenia or draw
59%
Armenia or Montenegro
72%
Draw or Montenegro
69%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+
12%
Montenegro wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals
66%
Armenia 2+ goals
29%
Armenia 3+ goals
9%
Montenegro 1+ goals
72%
Montenegro 2+ goals
37%
Montenegro 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)
43%
Montenegro (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

Montenegro away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 1.25 + Montenegro defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Montenegro attack 0.89 + Armenia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Armenia scores more
31%
level
28%
Montenegro scores more
41%

Montenegro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Armenia
Balanced
Montenegro
Direct / counter-attacking
45%Possession44%
78%Pass accuracy73%
12.7ShotsBiggest gap10.3
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ArmeniaMontenegro

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Armenia
DDLL
Montenegro
DWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Armenia host Montenegro

September 28, 2026: Armenia take on Montenegro in UEFA Nations League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.