Armenia 2–2 Cyprus: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Armenia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cyprus

Grant-Leon Ranos 59', 50'

Dimitris Christofi 82'

Andreas Karo 43'

3/28/2023

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Vazgen Sargsyan anvan Hanrapetakan Marzadasht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Armenia40%

×Draw26%

Cyprus34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchCyprus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.23

Armenia

1.36

Cyprus

1.23

Armenia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.82

creates per match

1.55

0.91

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Armenia

0.82

Cyprus

1.55

allows per match

Armenia

0.91

Cyprus

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia+0.00on par

Cyprus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia ↓

Cyprus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Armenia or draw

66%

Armenia or Cyprus

74%

Draw or Cyprus

60%

Winning margin

Armenia wins by 2+

18%

Cyprus wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Armenia 1+ goals

74%

Armenia 2+ goals

39%

Armenia 3+ goals

16%

Cyprus 1+ goals

71%

Cyprus 2+ goals

35%

Cyprus 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Armenia (draw refunded)

54%

Cyprus (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Cyprus away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia attack 0.82 + Cyprus defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cyprus attack 1.55 + Armenia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Armenia scores more

40%

level

26%

Cyprus scores more

34%

Armenia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Andronikos Kakoullis

43'

Andreas Karo↳ Charalampos Charalampous

45+1'

Danilo Spoljaric

46'

Kamo Hovhannisyan← David Davidyan

46'

Erik Piloyan← Erik Piloyan

46'

Marios Antoniadis← Michalis Ioannou

46'

Chambos Kyriakou← Ioannis Kousoulos

46'

Kostakis Artymatas← Valentin Roberge

50'

Grant-Leon Ranos↳ Eduard Spertsyan

59'

Grant-Leon Ranos↳ Sargis Adamyan

65'

Tigran Barseghyan← Vahan Bichakhchyan

65'

Artur Serobyan← Sargis Adamyan

65'

Zhirayr Shaghoyan← Grant-Leon Ranos

67'

Georgios Efrem← Marinos Tzionis

67'

Dimitris Christofi← Andronikos Kakoullis

76'

Loizos Loizou← Charalampos Charalampous

78'

Zhirayr Margaryan← Nair Tiknizyan

82'

84'

87'

88'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

ArmeniaCyprus

Overview

60%Possession40%

16Total Shots8

6Corners2

7Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots8

5On Target4

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides2