Armenia U19 3–2 Scotland U19: Result & Stats

Armenia U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Scotland U19

A. Serobyan 71'

H. Minasyan 64'

S. Hayrapetyan 62'

L. Smith 43'

A. Brooks 12' (pen)

11/10/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Igralište Lučkog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Armenia U1927%

×Draw22%

Scotland U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armenia U19Expected goals in this matchScotland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.95

Armenia U19

1.38

Scotland U19

1.95

Scotland U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.86

creates per match

0.90

3.00

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Armenia U19

0.86

Scotland U19

0.90

allows per match

Armenia U19

3.00

Scotland U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armenia U19+0.00on par

Scotland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia U19 ↓

Scotland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Armenia U19 or draw

49%

Armenia U19 or Scotland U19

78%

Draw or Scotland U19

73%

Winning margin

Armenia U19 wins by 2+

12%

Scotland U19 wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Armenia U19 1+ goals

75%

Armenia U19 2+ goals

40%

Armenia U19 3+ goals

16%

Scotland U19 1+ goals

86%

Scotland U19 2+ goals

58%

Scotland U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Armenia U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Scotland U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.00 · 7 matches

Scotland U19 away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia U19 attack 0.86 + Scotland U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Scotland U19 attack 0.90 + Armenia U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Armenia U19 scores more

27%

level

22%

Scotland U19 scores more

51%

Scotland U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Scotland U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. BrooksPenalty

43'

L. Smith

46'

E. Piloyan← H. Sargsyan

62'

S. Hayrapetyan

64'

H. Minasyan

71'

A. Serobyan

72'

N. Manukyan← M. Hakobyan

72'

Matthew Craig← C. McKinnon

72'

R. Apter← C. Mochrie

79'

H. Asatryan← L. Vardanyan

82'

A. Devine← J. Chilokoa-Mullen

82'

A. Lowry← L. Smith

86'

T. Sargsyan← A. Serobyan

86'

Y. Martirosyan← H. Minasyan

Armenia

Scotland

1

5

3

4

2

▼

Chilokoa-

6

Craig

11

▼

Mochrie

7

⚽

▼

Smith

8

▼

McKinnon

10

Carse

9

⚽

12

4

5

6

17

11

⚽

Hayrapety

18

▼

Sargsyan

10

⚽

▼

Serobyan

20

▼

Hakobyan

7

▼

Vardanyan

9

⚽

▼

Minasyan

Manager: V. Avetisyan

46'▲E. Piloyan←▼H. Sargsyan

72'▲N. Manukyan←▼M. Hakobyan

79'▲H. Asatryan←▼L. Vardanyan

86'▲T. Sargsyan←▼A. Serobyan

86'▲Y. Martirosyan←▼H. Minasyan

Armenia U19 substitutes

21Piloyan19Manukyan14Asatryan13Sargsyan22Martirosyan1Martirosyan3Gevorgyan16Yaghmuryan

Manager: B. Stark

72'▲Matthew Craig←▼C. McKinnon

72'▲R. Apter←▼C. Mochrie

82'▲A. Devine←▼J. Chilokoa-Mullen

82'▲A. Lowry←▼L. Smith

Scotland U19 substitutes

16Craig19Apter13Devine18Lowry15Smith17Butterfield14Coulton12Metcalfe20Offord