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Armenia U17 vs Belarus U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Armenia U17
Armenia U17
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Belarus U17
Belarus U17
10/22/2021UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Armenia U1721%
×Draw18%
Belarus U1761%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armenia U17
1.46
Belarus U17
2.56

Belarus U17 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Armenia U17
1.00
Belarus U17
1.80

allows per match

Armenia U17
3.33
Belarus U17
1.93

finishing

Armenia U17+0.00on par
Belarus U17+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armenia U17 ↓

Belarus U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Armenia U17 or draw
39%
Armenia U17 or Belarus U17
82%
Draw or Belarus U17
79%

Winning margin

Armenia U17 wins by 2+
9%
Belarus U17 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Armenia U17 1+ goals
77%
Armenia U17 2+ goals
43%
Armenia U17 3+ goals
18%
Belarus U17 1+ goals
92%
Belarus U17 2+ goals
72%
Belarus U17 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Armenia U17 (draw refunded)
26%
Belarus U17 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armenia U17 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Belarus U17 away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armenia U17 attack 1.00 + Belarus U17 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Belarus U17 attack 1.80 + Armenia U17 defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Armenia U17 scores more
21%
level
18%
Belarus U17 scores more
61%

Belarus U17 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Belarus U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Armenia U17 0–2 Belarus U17

Belarus U17 beat Armenia U17 2-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Borisov.