Armée 3–5 Tevragh-Zeïne: Result & Stats

Armée

FT

3 – 5

Tevragh-Zeïne

6/11/2022

Premier League · Round 23Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Armée22%

×Draw28%

Tevragh-Zeïne50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArméeExpected goals in this matchTevragh-Zeïne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.37

Armée

0.80

Tevragh-Zeïne

1.37

Tevragh-Zeïne creates 71% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 78 away

0.67

creates per match

1.32

1.42

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Armée

0.67

Tevragh-Zeïne

1.32

allows per match

Armée

1.42

Tevragh-Zeïne

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armée+0.00on par

Tevragh-Zeïne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armée ↓

Tevragh-Zeïne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Armée or draw

50%

Armée or Tevragh-Zeïne

72%

Draw or Tevragh-Zeïne

78%

Winning margin

Armée wins by 2+

7%

Tevragh-Zeïne wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Armée 1+ goals

55%

Armée 2+ goals

19%

Armée 3+ goals

5%

Tevragh-Zeïne 1+ goals

75%

Tevragh-Zeïne 2+ goals

40%

Tevragh-Zeïne 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Armée (draw refunded)

30%

Tevragh-Zeïne (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armée at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Tevragh-Zeïne away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.92 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armée attack 0.67 + Tevragh-Zeïne defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.80

Tevragh-Zeïne attack 1.32 + Armée defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Armée scores more

22%

level

28%

Tevragh-Zeïne scores more

50%

Tevragh-Zeïne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tevragh-Zeïne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff