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Armée vs Nouakchott King's — Premier League 2020

Armée
Armée
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nouakchott King's
Nouakchott King's
3/11/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Armée27%
×Draw28%
Nouakchott King's45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armée
0.96
Nouakchott King's
1.32

Nouakchott King's creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 77 away

creates per match

Armée
0.67
Nouakchott King's
1.23

allows per match

Armée
1.42
Nouakchott King's
1.25

finishing

Armée+0.00on par
Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armée ↓

Nouakchott King's →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Armée or draw
55%
Armée or Nouakchott King's
72%
Draw or Nouakchott King's
73%

Winning margin

Armée wins by 2+
10%
Nouakchott King's wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Armée 1+ goals
62%
Armée 2+ goals
25%
Armée 3+ goals
7%
Nouakchott King's 1+ goals
73%
Nouakchott King's 2+ goals
38%
Nouakchott King's 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Armée (draw refunded)
38%
Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armée at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armée attack 0.67 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + Armée defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Armée scores more
27%
level
28%
Nouakchott King's scores more
45%

Nouakchott King's at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nouakchott King's will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Armée vs Nouakchott King's

Armée and Nouakchott King's drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.