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Armée vs AC Douane — Premier League 2020

Armée
Armée
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
AC Douane
AC Douane
1/7/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Stade Olympique de Nouakchott

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Armée22%
×Draw28%
AC Douane50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armée
0.82
AC Douane
1.39

AC Douane creates 70% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 66 away

creates per match

Armée
0.67
AC Douane
1.36

allows per match

Armée
1.42
AC Douane
0.98

finishing

Armée+0.00on par
AC Douane+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armée ↓

AC Douane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Armée or draw
50%
Armée or AC Douane
72%
Draw or AC Douane
78%

Winning margin

Armée wins by 2+
7%
AC Douane wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Armée 1+ goals
56%
Armée 2+ goals
20%
Armée 3+ goals
5%
AC Douane 1+ goals
75%
AC Douane 2+ goals
40%
AC Douane 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Armée (draw refunded)
31%
AC Douane (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armée at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

AC Douane away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armée attack 0.67 + AC Douane defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.82

AC Douane attack 1.36 + Armée defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Armée scores more
22%
level
28%
AC Douane scores more
50%

AC Douane at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AC Douane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Armée 0–3 AC Douane

AC Douane beat Armée 3-0 in Premier League on January 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Nouakchott in Nouakchott.