Armed Police Force W 0–1 Nasaf W: Result & Stats

Armed Police Force W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nasaf W

8/25/2024

AFC Women's Champions League · Preliminary Round - 1Likas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Armed Police Force W5%

×Draw13%

Nasaf W82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armed Police Force WExpected goals in this matchNasaf W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

2.58

Armed Police Force W

0.50

Nasaf W

2.58

Nasaf W creates 416% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.33

creates per match

1.50

3.67

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Armed Police Force W

0.33

Nasaf W

1.50

allows per match

Armed Police Force W

3.67

Nasaf W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armed Police Force W+0.00on par

Nasaf W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armed Police Force W ↓

Nasaf W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–216%

0–313%

0–49%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (16%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Armed Police Force W or draw

18%

Armed Police Force W or Nasaf W

87%

Draw or Nasaf W

95%

Winning margin

Armed Police Force W wins by 2+

1%

Nasaf W wins by 2+

60%

Team goals

Armed Police Force W 1+ goals

39%

Armed Police Force W 2+ goals

9%

Armed Police Force W 3+ goals

1%

Nasaf W 1+ goals

92%

Nasaf W 2+ goals

72%

Nasaf W 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Armed Police Force W (draw refunded)

6%

Nasaf W (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armed Police Force W at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Nasaf W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armed Police Force W attack 0.33 + Nasaf W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Nasaf W attack 1.50 + Armed Police Force W defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Armed Police Force W scores more

5%

level

13%

Nasaf W scores more

82%

Nasaf W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Nasaf W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff