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Arman Gohar vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
5/10/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Arman Gohar47%
×Draw28%
Pars Jonoubi JAM25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
1.33
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

Arman Gohar creates 49% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 100 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.54
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.88
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
75%
Arman Gohar or Pars Jonoubi JAM
72%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
53%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
22%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
74%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
38%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
15%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
59%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
22%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
65%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
47%
level
28%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
25%

Arman Gohar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arman Gohar vs Pars Jonoubi JAM

Arman Gohar beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 2-1 in Azadegan League on May 10, 2022.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.