Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Arman Gohar vs Mes Shahr-e Babak — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
12/25/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Arman Gohar43%
×Draw31%
Mes Shahr-e Babak27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
1.14
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.83

Arman Gohar creates 37% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 85 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.54
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.79

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.88
Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.74

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Mes Shahr-e Babak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
73%
Arman Gohar or Mes Shahr-e Babak
69%
Draw or Mes Shahr-e Babak
57%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
18%
Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
68%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
32%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
11%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
56%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
20%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
62%
Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 0.79 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
43%
level
31%
Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
27%

Arman Gohar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arman Gohar 1–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak

Arman Gohar beat Mes Shahr-e Babak 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 25, 2021.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.