Arman Gohar 2–1 Malavan: Result & Stats

Arman Gohar

FT

2 – 1

Malavan

4/19/2021

Azadegan League · Round 21Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Arman Gohar48%

×Draw29%

Malavan23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arman GoharExpected goals in this matchMalavan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.82

Arman Gohar

1.31

Malavan

0.82

Arman Gohar creates 60% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

1.54

creates per match

0.76

0.88

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Arman Gohar

1.54

Malavan

0.76

allows per match

Arman Gohar

0.88

Malavan

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Malavan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw

77%

Arman Gohar or Malavan

71%

Draw or Malavan

52%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+

23%

Malavan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals

73%

Arman Gohar 2+ goals

38%

Arman Gohar 3+ goals

14%

Malavan 1+ goals

56%

Malavan 2+ goals

20%

Malavan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)

67%

Malavan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Malavan attack 0.76 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arman Gohar scores more

48%

level

29%

Malavan scores more

23%

Arman Gohar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff