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Arman Gohar vs Machine Sazi FC — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
6/2/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arman Gohar71%
×Draw18%
Machine Sazi FC11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
2.27
Machine Sazi FC
0.78

Arman Gohar creates 191% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 18 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.54
Machine Sazi FC
0.67

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.88
Machine Sazi FC
3.00

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
89%
Arman Gohar or Machine Sazi FC
82%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
29%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
47%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
90%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
66%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
39%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
54%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
18%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
86%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
71%
level
18%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
11%

Arman Gohar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arman Gohar 5–1 Machine Sazi FC

Arman Gohar beat Machine Sazi FC 5-1 in Azadegan League on June 2, 2022.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.