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Arman Gohar vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
11/12/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Arman Gohar40%
×Draw30%
Kheybar Khorramabad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
1.16
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.96

Arman Gohar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.54
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.88
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
70%
Arman Gohar or Kheybar Khorramabad
70%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
60%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
17%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
69%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
32%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
11%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
62%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
25%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
57%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
40%
level
30%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
30%

Arman Gohar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arman Gohar vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Arman Gohar and Kheybar Khorramabad drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.