Arman Gohar 1–2 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Arman Gohar

FT

1 – 2

Chadormalu SC

1/18/2023

Azadegan League · Round 18Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Arman Gohar36%

×Draw30%

Chadormalu SC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arman GoharExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.02

Arman Gohar

1.07

Chadormalu SC

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 31 away

1.54

creates per match

1.16

0.88

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Arman Gohar

1.54

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Arman Gohar

0.88

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw

66%

Arman Gohar or Chadormalu SC

70%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

64%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+

14%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals

66%

Arman Gohar 2+ goals

29%

Arman Gohar 3+ goals

9%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

64%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

27%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)

52%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.07

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arman Gohar scores more

36%

level

30%

Chadormalu SC scores more

34%

Arman Gohar at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff