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Arman Gohar vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
FT
2 – 2
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
9/15/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Arman Gohar43%
×Draw28%
Baderan Tehran30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arman Gohar
1.32
Baderan Tehran
1.05

Arman Gohar creates 26% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

creates per match

Arman Gohar
1.54
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Arman Gohar
0.88
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Arman Gohar+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arman Gohar ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arman Gohar or draw
70%
Arman Gohar or Baderan Tehran
72%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
57%

Winning margin

Arman Gohar wins by 2+
20%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arman Gohar 1+ goals
73%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
38%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
15%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
65%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
28%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
59%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arman Gohar at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.88 · 67 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arman Gohar attack 1.54 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.32

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Arman Gohar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arman Gohar scores more
43%
level
28%
Baderan Tehran scores more
30%

Arman Gohar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arman Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arman Gohar vs Baderan Tehran

Arman Gohar and Baderan Tehran drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.