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Armagh City vs Institute — League #407 2026

Armagh City
Armagh City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Institute
Institute
I. Rutkowski 1'
C. Porter 74', 23'
A. Hegarty 57'
8/23/2025League #407League #407 · Round 3Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Armagh City27%
×Draw21%
Institute52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.57
Institute
2.21

Institute creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.68
Institute
1.84

allows per match

Armagh City
2.58
Institute
1.47

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Institute+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Institute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
48%
Armagh City or Institute
79%
Draw or Institute
73%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
13%
Institute wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
79%
Armagh City 2+ goals
46%
Armagh City 3+ goals
21%
Institute 1+ goals
89%
Institute 2+ goals
65%
Institute 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
35%
Institute (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Institute away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.68 + Institute defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Institute attack 1.84 + Armagh City defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Armagh City scores more
27%
level
21%
Institute scores more
52%

Institute at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Institute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
I. Rutkowski
23'
C. Porter
57'
A. Hegarty
74'
C. Porter
Armagh
Institute
S. Campbell
Manager: S. Campbell
K. Deery
Manager: K. Deery

League #407: Armagh City 1–3 Institute

Institute beat Armagh City 3-1 in League #407 on August 23, 2025.

Goals: I. Rutkowski (1'), C. Porter (23', 74'), A. Hegarty (57').

The match was played at Holm Park in Armagh.