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Armagh City vs Dundela — League #407 2026

Armagh City
Armagh City
Preview
14:00
Dundela
Dundela
9/26/2026League #407League #407 · Round 9
Big match
41%
Dundela
model favours
37%22%41%

80% of Armagh City’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Armagh City37%
×Draw22%
Dundela41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armagh City
1.76
Dundela
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

creates per match

Armagh City
1.68
Dundela
1.10

allows per match

Armagh City
2.58
Dundela
1.84

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par
Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Dundela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw
59%
Armagh City or Dundela
78%
Draw or Dundela
63%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+
19%
Dundela wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals
83%
Armagh City 2+ goals
52%
Armagh City 3+ goals
26%
Dundela 1+ goals
84%
Dundela 2+ goals
55%
Dundela 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)
48%
Dundela (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.68 + Dundela defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.76

Dundela attack 1.10 + Armagh City defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Armagh City scores more
37%
level
22%
Dundela scores more
41%

Dundela at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dundela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
LLDLL
Dundela
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Armagh City vs Dundela — Match Preview

Armagh City face Dundela on September 26, 2026 in this League #407 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.