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Armadale vs Bayswater City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Armadale
Armadale
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Bayswater City
Bayswater City
7/12/2025Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 16Alfred Skeet Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Armadale33%
×Draw21%
Bayswater City46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armadale
1.82
Bayswater City
2.16

Bayswater City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

Armadale
1.98
Bayswater City
2.02

allows per match

Armadale
2.29
Bayswater City
1.66

finishing

Armadale+0.00on par
Bayswater City+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armadale ↓

Bayswater City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Armadale or draw
54%
Armadale or Bayswater City
79%
Draw or Bayswater City
67%

Winning margin

Armadale wins by 2+
17%
Bayswater City wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Armadale 1+ goals
84%
Armadale 2+ goals
54%
Armadale 3+ goals
27%
Bayswater City 1+ goals
88%
Bayswater City 2+ goals
63%
Bayswater City 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Armadale (draw refunded)
42%
Bayswater City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armadale at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.29 · 83 matches

Bayswater City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armadale attack 1.98 + Bayswater City defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.82

Bayswater City attack 2.02 + Armadale defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Armadale scores more
33%
level
21%
Bayswater City scores more
46%

Bayswater City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bayswater City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Armadale 0–4 Bayswater City

Bayswater City beat Armadale 4-0 in Western Australia NPL on July 12, 2025.

The match was played at Alfred Skeet Reserve in Perth.