Arles 0–0 Sedan: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Arles

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sedan

4/20/2012

Ligue 2 · Round 33Parc des Sports (Avignon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Arles39%

×Draw28%

Sedan33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchSedan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.08

Arles

1.21

Sedan

1.08

Arles creates 12% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

1.03

creates per match

1.16

1.01

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Arles

1.03

Sedan

1.16

allows per match

Arles

1.01

Sedan

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Sedan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Sedan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arles or draw

67%

Arles or Sedan

72%

Draw or Sedan

61%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

17%

Sedan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

70%

Arles 2+ goals

34%

Arles 3+ goals

12%

Sedan 1+ goals

66%

Sedan 2+ goals

29%

Sedan 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

54%

Sedan (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Sedan away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Sedan defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sedan attack 1.16 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arles scores more

39%

level

28%

Sedan scores more

33%

Arles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

T. Savagnier← M. Dalé

76'

Y. Eudeline← Y. Court

Arles

Sedan

16

4

3

5

2

6

24

11

▼

17

9

13

1

4

3

5

7

6

17

33

13

▼

Dalé

29

Acapandié

19

Yattara

76'▲T. Savagnier←▼M. Dalé

Arles substitutes

25Savagnier11Roufosse24Courgnaud26Mara30Yattara

76'▲Y. Eudeline←▼Y. Court

Sedan substitutes

14Eudeline10Makhedjouf21Boli23Diaby30Perraud

Ligue 2: Arles 0–0 Sedan

Arles and Sedan drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on April 20, 2012.

The match was played at Parc des Sports (Avignon).

Arles vs Sedan — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 2: Arles 0–0 Sedan