Arles 2–2 Reims: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Arles

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Reims

M. Yattara 69'

M. Dalé 48' (pen)

K. Ghilas 63'

A. Mandi 15'

1/18/2012

Ligue 2 · Round 20Parc des Sports (Avignon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Arles35%

×Draw29%

Reims36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchReims

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.12

Arles

1.09

Reims

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 92 away

1.03

creates per match

1.23

1.01

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Arles

1.03

Reims

1.23

allows per match

Arles

1.01

Reims

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Reims →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arles or draw

64%

Arles or Reims

71%

Draw or Reims

65%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

14%

Reims wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

66%

Arles 2+ goals

30%

Arles 3+ goals

10%

Reims 1+ goals

67%

Reims 2+ goals

31%

Reims 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

49%

Reims (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Reims away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Reims defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Reims attack 1.23 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Arles scores more

35%

level

29%

Reims scores more

36%

Reims at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

A. Mandi← K. Sekkat

15'

A. Mandi

48'

M. DaléPenalty

55'

H. Rodriguez← R. Elie

63'

69'

77'

78'

85'

O. N'Diaye← F. Laurenti

90+2'

R. Amalfitano← K. Ghilas

Arles

Reims

16

22

25

27

15

▼

Sekkat

21

Cá

5

⚽

▼

13

20

4

2

▼

Saadi

1

Butelle

15

▼

Laurenti

3

▼

26

7

6

17

11

▼

Roufosse

33

Abdelhami

13

⚽

Dalé

19

⚽

Yattara

55'▲H. Rodriguez←▼R. Elie

78'▲B. Soro←▼J. Roufosse

85'▲O. N'Diaye←▼F. Laurenti

Arles substitutes

18Rodriguez5Soro12N'Diaye16Petit23Dramani

8'▲A. Mandi←▼K. Sekkat

77'▲C. Fauré←▼I. Saadi

90+2'▲R. Amalfitano←▼K. Ghilas

Reims substitutes

26Mandi9Fauré23Amalfitano1Liébus6Peuget

Ligue 2: Arles 2–2 Reims

Arles and Reims drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on January 18, 2012.

Goals: A. Mandi (15'), M. Dalé (48' pen), K. Ghilas (63'), M. Yattara (69').

The match was played at Parc des Sports (Avignon).

Arles vs Reims — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 2: Arles 2–2 Reims