Arles 3–3 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.34

Arles

1.31

Lorient

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 219 away

0.74

creates per match

1.05

1.63

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Arles

0.74

Lorient

1.05

allows per match

Arles

1.63

Lorient

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Arles or draw

62%

Arles or Lorient

74%

Draw or Lorient

64%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

16%

Lorient wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

73%

Arles 2+ goals

38%

Arles 3+ goals

14%

Lorient 1+ goals

74%

Lorient 2+ goals

39%

Lorient 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

49%

Lorient (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.88 · 219 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 0.74 + Lorient defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lorient attack 1.05 + Arles defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arles scores more

36%

level

26%

Lorient scores more

38%

Lorient at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

C. Meriem↳ K. Ghilas

19'

M. Amalfitano↳ J. Morel

45'

S. Diarra↳ M. Amalfitano

52'

K. Gameiro↳ K. Monnet-Paquet

58'

L. Abenzoar← J. Fanchone

58'

Y. Kermorgant← K. Ghilas

58'

R. Cabella← S. Piocelle

63'

Y. Kermorgant↳ C. Meriem

77'

F. Coquelin← K. Monnet-Paquet

80'

R. Cabella↳ Y. Kermorgant

Arles

Lorient

16

Audard

15

A

6

5

17

18

⚽A

Amalfitan

7

Mvuemba

4

Romao

22

A

▼

Monnet-Pa

9

⚽

Gameiro

11

⚽

1

3

15

5

23

▼

Fanchone

28

⚽A

Meriem

27

N'Diaye

8

▼

Piocelle

7

Rocchi

17

Ayasse

10

A

▼

Ghilas

58'▲L. Abenzoar←▼J. Fanchone

58'▲Y. Kermorgant←▼K. Ghilas

58'▲R. Cabella←▼S. Piocelle

Arles substitutes

13Abenzoar18Kermorgant20Cabella30Yattara24Corrèze25Johnathan

77'▲F. Coquelin←▼K. Monnet-Paquet

Lorient substitutes

19Coquelin1Cappone2Sosa28Sunu12Fanchone27Kitambala29Robert

Ligue 1: Arles 3–3 Lorient

Arles and Lorient drew 3-3 in Ligue 1 on March 12, 2011.

Goals: C. Meriem (6'), M. Amalfitano (19'), S. Diarra (45'), K. Gameiro (52'), Y. Kermorgant (63'), R. Cabella (80').

The match was played at Parc des Sports (Avignon).

Arles vs Lorient — Ligue 1 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 1: Arles 3–3 Lorient