Arles 0–0 Gazelec FC Ajaccio: Result & Stats

Arles

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

3/20/2015

Ligue 2 · Round 29Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Arles45%

×Draw28%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchGazelec FC Ajaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.93

Arles

1.29

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

0.93

Arles creates 39% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 87 away

1.03

creates per match

0.84

1.01

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Arles

1.03

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

0.84

allows per match

Arles

1.01

Gazelec FC Ajaccio

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Gazelec FC Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Gazelec FC Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arles or draw

73%

Arles or Gazelec FC Ajaccio

72%

Draw or Gazelec FC Ajaccio

55%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

20%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

72%

Arles 2+ goals

37%

Arles 3+ goals

14%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 1+ goals

61%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 2+ goals

24%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

63%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Gazelec FC Ajaccio away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Gazelec FC Ajaccio defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gazelec FC Ajaccio attack 0.84 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arles scores more

45%

level

28%

Gazelec FC Ajaccio scores more

27%

Arles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

F. Ouaamar← H. Rodriguez

60'

J. Tshibumbu← K. Mayi

63'

Koro Koné

75'

J. François← J. Bréchet

82'

B. Psaume← M. Niang

82'

R. Boujedra← M. Larbi

Possession

Statistics

ArlesGazelec

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Corners4

14Fouls19

Shots

4On Target3

5Off Target8

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls19

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

0Offsides4