Arles 1–3 Angers: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Arles

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Angers

R. Thomas 68' (OG)

Pessalli 90+2'

J. Kodjia 83'

R. Thomas 50'

1/16/2015

Ligue 2 · Round 20Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Arles38%

×Draw29%

Angers33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlesExpected goals in this matchAngers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.06

Arles

1.15

Angers

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 114 away

1.03

creates per match

1.12

1.01

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Arles

1.03

Angers

1.12

allows per match

Arles

1.01

Angers

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arles+0.00on par

Angers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arles ↓

Angers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Arles or draw

67%

Arles or Angers

71%

Draw or Angers

62%

Winning margin

Arles wins by 2+

16%

Angers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arles 1+ goals

68%

Arles 2+ goals

32%

Arles 3+ goals

11%

Angers 1+ goals

65%

Angers 2+ goals

29%

Angers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Arles (draw refunded)

53%

Angers (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arles at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Angers away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arles attack 1.03 + Angers defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Angers attack 1.12 + Arles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arles scores more

38%

level

29%

Angers scores more

33%

Arles at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

Samuel Gigot

50'

R. Thomas

62'

Y. Eudeline← M. Ben Othman

66'

G. van Kessel← Q. NGakoutou

68'

R. ThomasOwn goal

72'

75'

76'

78'

78'

80'

G. Bocaly← T. Savanier

82'

S. Clémence← C. Diers

83'

Jonas Pessalli

83'

J. Kodjia

90+2'

Pessalli

Possession

Statistics

ArlesAngers

Overview

49%Possession51%

7Corners4

11Fouls18

Shots

2On Target3

3Off Target4

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Arles vs Angers

Angers beat Arles 3-1 in Ligue 2 on January 16, 2015.

Goals: R. Thomas (50', 68' o.g.), J. Kodjia (83'), Pessalli (90+2').

Angers dominated possession with 51% of the ball.

The match was played at Parc des Sports in Avignon.

Arles vs Angers — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Statistics

Match Recap: Arles vs Angers