Arlanda 4–3 Umea FF: Result & Stats | Ettan - Norra

Arlanda

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Umea FF

10/12/2025

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 26Midgardsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Arlanda60%

×Draw21%

Umea FF19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArlandaExpected goals in this matchUmea FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.11

Arlanda

2.10

Umea FF

1.11

Arlanda creates 89% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 60 away

1.83

creates per match

0.83

1.39

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Arlanda

1.83

Umea FF

0.83

allows per match

Arlanda

1.39

Umea FF

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arlanda+0.00on par

Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arlanda ↓

Umea FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Arlanda or draw

81%

Arlanda or Umea FF

79%

Draw or Umea FF

40%

Winning margin

Arlanda wins by 2+

37%

Umea FF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arlanda 1+ goals

88%

Arlanda 2+ goals

62%

Arlanda 3+ goals

35%

Umea FF 1+ goals

67%

Umea FF 2+ goals

30%

Umea FF 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arlanda (draw refunded)

75%

Umea FF (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arlanda at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arlanda attack 1.83 + Umea FF defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.10

Umea FF attack 0.83 + Arlanda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Arlanda scores more

60%

level

21%

Umea FF scores more

19%

Arlanda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arlanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff