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Arlanda vs AFC Eskilstuna — Ettan - Norra 2019

Arlanda
Arlanda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
9/6/2025Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 21Midgardsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Arlanda50%
×Draw21%
AFC Eskilstuna29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arlanda
2.10
AFC Eskilstuna
1.57

Arlanda creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 37 away

creates per match

Arlanda
1.83
AFC Eskilstuna
1.76

allows per match

Arlanda
1.39
AFC Eskilstuna
2.38

finishing

Arlanda+0.00on par
AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arlanda ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Arlanda or draw
71%
Arlanda or AFC Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or AFC Eskilstuna
50%

Winning margin

Arlanda wins by 2+
29%
AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Arlanda 1+ goals
88%
Arlanda 2+ goals
62%
Arlanda 3+ goals
35%
AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
79%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
46%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Arlanda (draw refunded)
63%
AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arlanda at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.38 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arlanda attack 1.83 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.10

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.76 + Arlanda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arlanda scores more
50%
level
21%
AFC Eskilstuna scores more
29%

Arlanda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arlanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arlanda vs AFC Eskilstuna

Arlanda beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 in Ettan - Norra on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Midgardsvallen in Märsta.