Arkadag 1–0 Khalidiya: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Arkadag

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Khalidiya

12/24/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Arkadag Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arkadag32%

×Draw37%

Khalidiya32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArkadagExpected goals in this matchKhalidiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

Arkadag

0.75

Khalidiya

0.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

0.50

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Arkadag

0.50

Khalidiya

1.00

allows per match

Arkadag

0.50

Khalidiya

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arkadag+0.00on par

Khalidiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arkadag ↓

Khalidiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–022%

0–117%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

78%22%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Arkadag or draw

68%

Arkadag or Khalidiya

63%

Draw or Khalidiya

68%

Winning margin

Arkadag wins by 2+

10%

Khalidiya wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arkadag 1+ goals

53%

Arkadag 2+ goals

17%

Arkadag 3+ goals

4%

Khalidiya 1+ goals

53%

Khalidiya 2+ goals

17%

Khalidiya 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Arkadag (draw refunded)

50%

Khalidiya (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arkadag at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Khalidiya away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arkadag attack 0.50 + Khalidiya defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Khalidiya attack 1.00 + Arkadag defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Arkadag scores more

32%

level

37%

Khalidiya scores more

32%

Arkadag at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Arkadag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff