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Arkadag vs Al Ahli Doha — AFC Cup 2018

Arkadag
Arkadag
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Ahli Doha
Al Ahli Doha
11/5/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Arkadag Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arkadag43%
×Draw30%
Al Ahli Doha27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arkadag
1.15
Al Ahli Doha
0.85

Arkadag creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Arkadag
0.50
Al Ahli Doha
1.20

allows per match

Arkadag
0.50
Al Ahli Doha
1.80

finishing

Arkadag+0.00on par
Al Ahli Doha+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arkadag ↓

Al Ahli Doha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Arkadag or draw
73%
Arkadag or Al Ahli Doha
70%
Draw or Al Ahli Doha
57%

Winning margin

Arkadag wins by 2+
18%
Al Ahli Doha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arkadag 1+ goals
68%
Arkadag 2+ goals
32%
Arkadag 3+ goals
11%
Al Ahli Doha 1+ goals
57%
Al Ahli Doha 2+ goals
21%
Al Ahli Doha 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arkadag (draw refunded)
61%
Al Ahli Doha (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arkadag at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Al Ahli Doha away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arkadag attack 0.50 + Al Ahli Doha defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Ahli Doha attack 1.20 + Arkadag defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arkadag scores more
43%
level
30%
Al Ahli Doha scores more
27%

Arkadag at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arkadag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Arkadag 1–1 Al Ahli Doha

Arkadag and Al Ahli Doha drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on November 5, 2025.

The match was played at Arkadag Stadium in Arkadag.