Arka Gdynia 1–3 Wisla Krakow: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Wisla Krakow

2/18/2023

I Liga · Round 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Arka Gdynia38%

×Draw25%

Wisla Krakow36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchWisla Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.38

Arka Gdynia

1.42

Wisla Krakow

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 67 away

1.67

creates per match

1.78

0.97

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.67

Wisla Krakow

1.78

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

0.97

Wisla Krakow

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Wisla Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

64%

Arka Gdynia or Wisla Krakow

75%

Draw or Wisla Krakow

62%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

18%

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

76%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

41%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

17%

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals

75%

Wisla Krakow 2+ goals

40%

Wisla Krakow 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

51%

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.97 · 89 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.67 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Arka Gdynia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

38%

level

25%

Wisla Krakow scores more

36%

Arka Gdynia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff