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Arka Gdynia vs Radnik Surdulica — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia
CANC
14:00
Radnik Surdulica
Radnik Surdulica
1/30/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Arka Gdynia50%
×Draw24%
Radnik Surdulica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arka Gdynia
1.75
Radnik Surdulica
1.20

Arka Gdynia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Arka Gdynia
2.33
Radnik Surdulica
1.33

allows per match

Arka Gdynia
1.07
Radnik Surdulica
1.17

finishing

Arka Gdynia+0.00on par
Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Radnik Surdulica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw
74%
Arka Gdynia or Radnik Surdulica
76%
Draw or Radnik Surdulica
50%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+
27%
Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals
83%
Arka Gdynia 2+ goals
52%
Arka Gdynia 3+ goals
25%
Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals
70%
Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals
34%
Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)
66%
Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 2.33 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.75

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.33 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more
50%
level
24%
Radnik Surdulica scores more
26%

Arka Gdynia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Arka Gdynia host Radnik Surdulica

January 30, 2024: Arka Gdynia take on Radnik Surdulica in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Arka Gdynia host Radnik Surdulica at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.